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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (115880)6/14/2000 5:38:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (1) of 1579659
 
Why I think Y2001 estimates will soon exceed Y2000's: If you remove the low estimate from Yahoo's summary of Y2000 and Y2001 estimates at biz.yahoo.com you find that the Y2000 estimate is $4.98 and the Y2001 estimate is $4.59. THis is a difference of -8%.

All of the Y2000 estimates have 0% tax rate
The Y2001 estimates have 33% (avg) tax rate

But if use a tax rate of 16% for 2000, and 33% for 2001, the estimates become $4.18 and $4.59 for 2000 and 2001, respectively.

I think its clear the Yahoo estimates include some obsolete estimates in their database. Even if you subtract out the wacky "low" estimate of 0.54 for the current quarter, the average estimate (untaxed) for the current quarter is $1.11. Yet AMD has recently said that the current quarter will meet or exceed Q1 which was $1.15.

So I expect both the $4.18 (16% taxed) and the $4.59 (33% taxed) estimates to be moving up.

FLASH, I just got a report from Albert - a semi industry survey from Erika Klauer, Deutshe Banc. This is the first analyst report that shows Y2000 estimates ($5.25, apparently untaxed) BELOW the Y2001 estimates ($5.40, fully taxed). There's nothing in this report saying anything about taxation, so my assumption is that the numbers are based on zero tax for 2000 and something like 33% for 2001.

Petz
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