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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company
QCOM 181.84+0.9%Jan 8 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote ()6/15/2000 2:03:00 AM
From: tradeyourstocks  Read Replies (2) of 13582
 
Today was really amazing. Some shmuck from the BS brokerage firm cuts estimates and major investors sell their shares with no questions asked? Let's see, the shmuck cuts fy2000 to 1.04 from 1.08. Q has already earned 0.51. The June Quarter will be good, everyone knows this right? Management did all but tell us that they would beat the 0.27 for this quarter. The high estimate is 0.29 and until I hear new guidance from management that's what I'm counting as a safe estimate. That leaves Q needing 0.28 in the Sep quarter to make the original 1.08 estimate. Since there is at least a 2 month time difference between ASIC sales and handset sales, I will venture a guess that at least 1 month of the Sep quarter should have a positive net effect from the 2000 holiday shopping season. So, the real question that this shmuck should be raising is: Can Qualcomm's potential weakness in the Korean business be offset with higher sales to other markets for 2 months in the next quarter? Since most manufacturers are capacity constrained anyway, companies like Samsung should easily be able to retarget capacity to different markets. Of course the Korean market itself may prove to be much stronger than anticipated due to the rollout of 1X services later this year.

I'll comment on the shmuck's fy2001 estimates some other time, but for now lets just say that Qualcomm will beat his $1.30 estimate by a "very very interesting number".

MicroE
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