Re: CDMA Rolling Thunder
Eric, this opinion confirms what most here already know:
"Expect GSM markets to upgrade services via CDMA deployments in new UMTS spectrum. CDMA is expected to grow as a whole at 68%, analysts have them modeled at 50%. CDMA subscribers could grow at a 5 year CAGR rate of 68%. There is room for numbers to grow based on the expected growth rates. In 2003, cdmaOne subscribers should be about 95% of total CDMA subscribers.
"The CDMA market may grow faster than expected and expect that GSM operators that are looking to upgrade but are without new spectrum, would build their network based on CDMA. CDMA 1X will reach the US market end of 2000. Trials have already been made with Sprint and Lucent. That deployment will start with SK Telecom in Korea end of 2000, followed by KDDI in Japan, and Sprint and Verizon in the USA. QCOM is a key and dominant leader in the cdmaOne
market and anticipate them to be a participant in the WCDMA market and receive royalties from this. Expect CDMA to be deployed in more markets at a faster rate. This is because GSM will not be cost effective in the long term as it would not have a good evolution to lower network economics (EDGE allows faster data speeds, but not lower economics). Therefore, GSM carriers will push their W-CDMA roll out faster than earlier expected. The 800 MHz markets will move towards CDMA 1X and GSM markets (where UMTS spectrum is given away) will move to W-CDMA. Although Qualcomm will lose market share with W-CDMA vis-a-vis cdmaOne, they will be in a enviable position to supply chips to the CDMA market for both W-CDMA and cdmaOne. Approximately, 14 manufacturers have signed with QUALCOMM for 3G which covers both CDMA and W-CDMA.The company has cross license with Motorola and Ericsson on 3G. The company's strategy is to
acquire the technology themselves and we believe that this will happen within the next 12 months. Once this is attained, we believe that the Company would be in a position to produce multi-mode chips and capture about 40-50% of the WCDMA market. W-CDMA will not be deployed in any other spectrum other than UMTS. As for the 800,900,1800, and 1900 MHz bands, operators who wants 3G service level but does not have the UMTS spectrum, would need to go to CDMA 1X. This progression would depend on how many networks will need to up grade to CDMA and how many networks will move up to the UMTS spectrum."
God bless the longs.
John |
