<<Mr Market thinks something is going on.>>
You know, this is interesting. Someone PM'ed me this morning to ask whether QCOM was pulling a CTXS. I said that as of right now the situations were quite different.
The CTXS debacle began with negative analyst comments, a downgrade, and a sharp fall in the stock price. Almost all of the CTXS longs brushed these off and treated the situation as fine or even a buying opportunity. They ignored what Mr. Market was saying, and paid heavily for it.
But the reason they paid heavily was that it turned out CTXS had actually screwed up in a big-time way, and had then compounded the mistake by hiding the bad news and only releasing it under pressure. Investors and analysts felt screwed by management both because m. dropped the ball and because they were not candid about it. Although CTXS may still have some solid business prospects down the road, the near term doesn't look too good and people now have solid reason to doubt what managment says.
With regard to QCOM, on the other hand, there is every reason to believe that the current drop--i.e. Mr. Market's short-term thoughts--relate not to substance but to FUD. Q management has not remained silent but has actually repeatedly said things are fine; the best Q analysts and watchers have chimed in; and on this one Mr. Market has been wrong lots of times before.
Let me put it this way: if there is indeed something seriously the matter that justifies this drop, everything we know about Q and its management will have to be revised--at which point the price would drop much further, IMO. Personally, I doubt very much that will happen, but as I've said, WTFDIK. I'll just wait for the hand to be played out, like I did with CTXS, and hope that lightning won't strike me twice.
tekboy/Ares@burnvictim.com |
