RB, aren't most tech stocks similar regarding the degree of insider selling? Q1 2000 was the biggest insider cash-out of all time. it overpowered record high inflows into tech mutual funds, and i suspect it will continue apace. from July-September, a vast amount of lock-ups expires.
i also think that the supply / demand situation for tech components is way overhyped. this becomes clear when looking at inventory to sales ratios of various cos. that are reporting lately, and it is quite possible that overordering is the culprit.
all that said, the charts of the various indices look like they're on the verge of an upside break-out...so we may get yet another rally in stocks, regardless of fundamentals.
note, NYSE members have bought heavily, for several weeks in a row...that means a rally will come into which their inventory is distributed. all the hype about the soft landing being in the bag, the Fed being done, etc. led up to this point.
note also that the stock buyback/ESOP pyramid scheme is in danger of being rent asunder unless the stocks of a few key big cap cos can be moved higher again. i am much too cynical to not to allow for this to succeed. it will be done, by hook or crook.
in the end of course, fundamentals will count for something again...but who knows when.
regards,
hb |
