Hi Red - short term or long term problem? I wish I had the answer too! IMHO, this is a perception problem --- and partly self inflicted! I ve no sympathy for the sell side analysts, except maybe Ms Sarah Mattson, since they should ve done their own DD by spot checking the channels and polling corporations [or should ve paid someone to do this sort of things,] so it is not entirely CTXS fault from the surprise surprise dept. However, like many people on SI, these analysts got caught with the pants down also, so they ve 2 choices. Either they tell their clients this is a short term thing and continue to pound the table or they blame it on poor guidance. Unfortunately, many chose the latter. IMHO, that will make a lot of people to stay away
Years ago, I got into RATL just before it fell off the cliff. It took me more than 1 yr to recoup the loss and got out. Sure, since then it has gone on to new highs. However, there were a lot of people like me who sought breakeven. The overhang was substantial. Additionally, RATL didn't make any blunder and had less competition.
So, let say CTXS hit the lower target. The street is likely to watch for another 2 Qs or more to see if there are more cockroaches before it even tries to tell its clients. On top of that, the technical damage will need time to repair.
In conclusion, my guess is that you are right about CTXS product. Its demise is greatly exeggerated. However, fundamentals will not be readily translated into share price, especially when CTXS was a momentum stock
Just my 2c
best, Bosco |
