Little Joe,
I do think it's too bad all the "old" posters sold their positions because NOW, as opposed to any time in the past, Ultra is poised to do very well. As you mentioned, all those high Ultra shares of the past were based on pure speculation, shady newsletter writers, too many optimistic company news releases concerning too much bull twaddle. Hiccup and there'd be an email in your box. Has that changed!
I'll tell you where I get my "information": I regularly (for three years now) email David Russell (who I like) and usually quickly get back answers to questions I have. I subscribe to the Pinedale Roundup (have for three years) to get a sense of which companies are well thought of in the community (Ultra is), I am on the mailing list with the BLM so have read the Draft Environmental Impact Statement and the Final EIS document for the Anticline. I have read at length the FONSI (Finding of No Significant Impact) concerning 40-acre spacing with the Jonah field. (By the way, Ultra Petroleum is numerously mentioned in all these tomes.) I have read numerous documents and reports concerning the Green River Basin and the vast amount of gas there. From an investment perspective I don't know as much about any other company or any other subject as I think I do about Ultra and Natural Gas/Green River Basin.
As far as a link between the price of NG and the share price of UP, well, Ultra has more than doubled off its lows and that with no new wells AND a decrease in production due to Watford's restructuring (successful, I think) of the company. There are a number of Canadian companies with higher share prices than Ultra but without what Ultra has going for it. Just think, any day now Ultra will be handed an additional 20+ Jonah locations, each with a high degree of probability of being a commercial well. And each of these wells will be drilled with loan financing, perhaps with a 6-8 month payout, after which 62%(?) of production accrues to UP! And on the Anticline Ultra will have years of locations to drill, with the guidance of good seismic maps. Plus AEC and Questar have entered the area and give great credibility to the resource and to the techniques used to get it out. And wells they and the other companies complete will increase the knowledge base for all future well locations. The major factor, of course, is the value of the gas. Prices will stay high at least for the next year or two by all accounts.
So I truly think the risk/reward ratio has swung in my favor. I have a great deal riding on Ultra's success. Honestly, each week I feel a little less anxious about the outcome. (Remember, too, we were looking at a 3-5 year scenario way back then; for me this is the beginning of Year Four.)
Final thought: I wish the best to all of you who hung in as long as you did. I hope whatever you're in now pays off for you.
Gerry Atwater |
