Eliades calling for short term top here based on 21 day cycle and other indicators
Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday June 15th.
On the closing Dow
Industrials price chart there has been a pattern of important market
turning points every 21 market days. Today was the 21st market day, and
because the Dow has rallied for three
consecutive days on a closing basis into today, we will make the assumption
that if today turns out to be a relatively important turning point, it will
be a top. Let's review the history of the pattern over the last seven or
eight market months.
May 16-an exact closing high-down 635 points in eight market days
April 14th-an exact closing low-up 817 points in six days
March 16th-minus two days was a closing low up 1476 points in 20 days
February 15th-an exact closing high- up 856 points in seven days
January 14th-the all time high close-down 984 points in nine days
down 1927 points in 35 days
December 15th-an apparent failure of the pattern
November 15th, 1999-minus two days was a closing low-up 686 points in 15
days
October 15th, 1999-exact closing low-up 710 points in 10 days
Up 1266 points in 34 days
up 1700 points in 63 days
It has been a remarkable pattern, and as you can see, a very consistent
one. The magnitude of all the moves noted above was measured on a closing
price basis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If, indeed, today proves
to be a closing high, a
repeat of the average magnitude seen over the past eight months would put
the Dow at a closing price of a 9609 by July 15th. We use July 15th as the
date because the average time period noted above was 21 market days. There
are an average of 21
market days in each month.
Today, our own New 10 TRIN closed at 0.827, thereby rendering a short-term
sell signal. The history of these signals over the past six months to a
year has been quite consistent, although in some cases there has been a lag
time of several days
between the sell signal and the subsequent decline. The McClellan
oscillator today closed at + 72.4, and we continue to see a potentially
bearish pattern today's oscillator reading was the lowest reading of the
past two weeks, and we continue to see
a pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the oscillator over the past two
weeks |
