Taxes--The Post:>>>Whither Bush's Big Tax Cut Vow?
washingtonpost.com
By Terry M. Neal
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday , June 17, 2000 ; A04
In his Super Tuesday victory speech, George W. Bush struck a defiant tone: "The polls say cutting taxes is not popular. I'm not proposing tax relief because it is the popular thing to do. I'm proposing tax relief because it is the right thing to do."
Yet since that March 7 speech in Austin, Bush has said little about his 10-year, $1.6 trillion plan to cut income tax rates for all Americans, a proposal he touted daily during the primary season. Instead, he has rolled out a series of targeted tax cuts aimed at helping people purchase health insurance and housing and save for retirement and other purposes.
The shift reflects the campaign's conclusion that a massive across-the-board tax cut is not the ticket to the White House. With polls continuing to show that tax cuts are not among the top concerns of voters and with Vice President Gore referring repeatedly to the Texas governor's "risky tax scheme," Bush has adopted a new tax strategy that resembles the one employed to great effect by President Clinton in recent years.
The approach fits with Bush's overall rhetorical effort to appeal more to voters in the middle, after a hard-fought primary battle in which he moved aggressively to secure the support of conservatives with a promise of a big, across-the-board tax cut.
Campaign spokesman Ari Fleischer denied that Bush was reading polls. "Having laid down his foundation last fall, he is building on themes with a rich and diverse agenda for whatever else he plans to do as president," Fleischer said. "He's able to make deep inroads into traditional Democrat issues because he has specific ideas for how to save Social Security and improve education."
Bush, for his part, yesterday offered his most extensive comments on a broad-based tax cut in months, as he reacted to Gore's proposals this week for more targeted tax cuts for education, health care and retirement savings. "Yet another change," Bush said in Canton, Ohio, giving his head a little shake. "He ought to release the results of the focus groups." And he added a warning: "Be wary of what's called 'targeted tax cuts'--tax cuts for political purposes."
Later, during a news conference, Bush acknowledged that some of his own proposed cuts are targeted at education, health care and charitable giving. The difference, he said, is that his tax proposal is based on principles, while Gore's is politically motivated. "Surely America doesn't want a focus-group-driven presidency. They want a president who makes decisions based on principles," he said.
Bush's principles include the belief that no one should pay more than 33 percent in federal income tax, that the bottom rate for low-wage earners should be dropped to 10 percent, and that the additional taxes paid as workers strive for the middle class--his favorite example is a single mother earning $22,000--should be phased in more gradually.
"The plan I laid out in the primaries is the one I plan to run on," he said. "I'm not one to chase public opinion."
In shifting gears, Bush has come full circle. He kicked off his campaign last year talking about helping the needy by encouraging charitable giving and participation in faith-based social organizations. He delivered three speeches on education. He chastised his party for often focusing on the national "to the exclusion of everything else." It wasn't until December that he laid out his economic policy platform.
Then, in the early months of the year, as Bush tried to appeal to the party's base of conservative voters in the midst of a strong primary challenge from Arizona Sen. John McCain, he shifted his strategy dramatically, talking almost exclusively about tax cuts.
While some political observers viewed him as damaged by McCain's challenge, Bush's supporters now say it was a blessing in disguise. The GOP base coalesced around Bush much earlier than it did around Robert J. Dole in 1996 or Bush's father in 1992, freeing up Bush through the spring and summer to concentrate on courting new voters.
"John McCain forced the conservative wing of the party to embrace Bush as the front-runner in February," said Republican strategist Scott Reed, who ran Dole's presidential campaign in 1996. "Then Bush was able to begin his move to the center very successfully leading up to the convention."
At the same point four years ago, Dole had yet to offer a comprehensive tax cut plan, and the party's economic conservatives were pressuring him to do so. Adding to Dole's difficulties was the fact that he had long placed deficit reduction over tax cuts as a priority and was viewed skeptically by many in the party. Similarly, in 1992, President George Bush was not trusted by many economic conservatives after breaking a vow in his first term not to raise taxes.
The younger Bush's emphasis on tax cuts during the primaries, combined with his record as a tax-cutter in Texas, has largely eased the concerns among many of the same conservative leaders who were so vocal in 1992 and 1996, several activists said in interviews.
"Nobody needs Bush to tell them that he is a tax-cutter," said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.
This faith in Bush by the party's base is backed up in polls that suggest as many as 90 percent of self-identified Republicans have already made up their minds that they will vote for Bush, a higher percentage than that of the Democrats who have committed to Gore. Reed said that at a similar point in 1996, Dole had the support of about 70 percent of Republicans.
Several GOP activists said they believe Bush will return his focus to tax cuts closer to the election to energize the party's base. But others believe he should be making more of the issue now.
"It ought to be a part of every speech," said Jack Kemp, Dole's running mate in 1996. But then, laughing at himself, he added: "I lost to [Clinton-Gore], and here I am giving advice to George W."
Staff writer David Von Drehle, traveling with Bush, and polling director Richard Morin contributed to this report.
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