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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (24418)	6/18/2000 11:39:00 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Allan, > In my "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Bulkowski, he says that the H&S pattern reaches the price computation only 63%....< Also, note that he says "reaches the price computation". Does that mean that there are instances where the trade wins but the measured move is not completed? You make a very good point here. I'd be interested to know the statistics if anyone has them. If, for example, the probability of reaching 75% of the "measured move" were in the range of 80% or more, that would make a compelling case for acting on the breakdown, but setting your sights on a somewhat smaller move before taking profits. I'd love to see a histogram of frequency of hitting price levels from the neckline down as a % of the predicted move. I suspect there might be a relatively high # of reversals just below the neckline (i.e., failed breakdowns), followed by a declining frequency before rising to give that 63% at or below the target. Dan

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