Zeev, congratulations on an excellent call with rmbs. I am reminded of your statement a long time ago that when the fundamentals and TA don't agree, always trust TA.
In rambus' case, any technology bigot/expert who spent any time looking at the i820 debacle, and looked at the fundamentals alone would have walked away from this one and sneered :) at the fools throwing money at this one.
This is like the typical TA mantra where TA points to the writing on the wall before the wall is even visible via FA methods.
Wish I was more humble and not so judgmental on rdram. That would make me a much better trader. Who would have thought that rambus can kill rdram and get even more revenuefrom ddr? Glad I didn't short this guy.
So that you know, this is not all gushing praise and kowtows :), I thought I'd mention I spent some time with CTLM and started buying from 28 (may25th) until June7th (my last price was 46.125 [yup --- low of the day, a fluke]) sold 1/2@62.125 (june12th) and 1/2@59.875 (june 16th). I'm now out, and will stay away unless it looks respectable again.
What do you think of the company? I picked it for roughly the same reasons I did SNDK in '98, the founder founded NMGC and CRUS(?), and they have real silicon. However, it looks like it has corrected itself. The movements in CTLM are volatile enough, but I'm guessing it is in a short-term downtrend and could get worse in the immediate future. It could attract shorts after the momentum players leave. But it is a real company with real silicon addressing the low-cost, low-power USB->xDSL modem market.
They own the following two patents
patents.ibm.com
patents.ibm.com
Be warned that they are not profitable so far, and they will only succeed if xDSL takes off. |
