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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 686.10

-0.5%

Feb 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gary Burton who wrote (54557)	6/18/2000 9:38:00 PM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (2) of 99985

To All These "Wave 4 Consolidation" Theorists.. And there are quite a few who are basing their expectations of a summer rally on a consolidation in the indices, I have gone on record as stating my Elliott Wave belief in an ending abc correction, to-wit we are currently resting at the beginning of the next wave 1 decline in the primary bear market.. This became evident with the leading bank indices on Thursday and Friday last week, so I am not of the opinion that the Bear has handed the reigns back over to the Bull yet, or anytime soon.. We have an overly bullish rydex (put/call) ratio of .24 which is a contrarian indicator.. We have a .80 sell signal on the Eliades indicator.. We have a 23 reading on the Vix indicator (complete absence of fear).. We have H&S tops and Double tops everywhere I look, with the Dow broken below it's 30/50/100/200 MA's.. We have the Nasdaq sitting with a rounded top on an artificially created Island that refuses to rise.. Now how could anyone assume this activity is all of a sudden going to create a burst of impulse buying to the upside that someone isn't going to be selling into before anyone else gets the chance to do so? >><<

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