Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 91.18

-4.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (44714)	6/18/2000 9:39:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Zeev: There is also the note from Tate that DRAM will eventually be only 35% of total revenues I guess is that of the other 65%, memory controllers for SDRAM and DDR RAM will make up a good portion of it. Tate was non comittal about going after VIA Systems, who have 1/2 of PC controller market, after being prompted by caller on conference call. Any additional licensing agreements will depend greatly on the potential licensee needing existing RMBS IP not SDRAM/DDR IP that the courts will eventually settle. I think that any other DRAM manufacturer that has made an investment in producing RDRAM will settle with RMBS fairly shortly about SDRAM and DDR in order to keep RMBS licenses active. It is the people like Hitachi and possibly Micron, they still haven't made any RDRAM yet, that will risk going to court for a long drawn out battle. Last but not least, I think that RMBS will do another non cash expense for more warrants at this quarter earnings announcement just like last quarter. My calculations say that RMBS has another 7.2 M options to expense at $ 2.5 per share (4 M for Intel, 2 M for management, 1.2 M for DRAM manufactures). Those 7.2 M warrants add up to $ 560 M or about another $5.60 on top of $1.70 loss reported earlier. These guys will try IMO to bite the bullet on these non cash charges ASAP in order to look profitable when the big earnings start to roll in in future years. My bet is that the DRAM manufacturers warrants will be this quarter. I am not sure but if I heard Tate right the first 3 DRAM manufacturers to reach certain milemarkers will get warrants. My guess is that Samsung, Toshiba and NEC are the ones in line for the warrants. This charge will be good enough to cause a pullback just like last time. This pullback should create a new buying opportunity when next DRAM licensing agreement settlement is achieved. I agree that RMBS will go much higher. john

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