You are in utter denial. Get a grip on the facts before you hurt yourself, will ya? LOL.
Anyone who thinks that the China game is set in stone is engaging in utter speculation. The best information I've seen suggests that China Unicom will go directly to 1X and/or CDMA2000, bypassing 2G altogether.
China Unicom is expected to have over 10M GSM subs by the end of 2000. The groundwork for GSM's gains at the end of 1999 was paved in 1996 and 1997. What you are seeing now is the groundwork being paved for GSM's gains in 2003 and 2004, at which time China is expected to have somewhere close to 200m wireless subscribers. Note that China expects that only 50% of the transition to 3G will be complete by 2010! That matches the profile and per capita income of their population -- roughly 400-500 million urban population and 800-900 million rural population.
Already the world's biggest GSM market, China's GSM customer base is predicted to grow from 37m at the end of 1999 to around 70 million by the end of this year. Significant GSM network expansion contracts for Hunan and Jiangsu Provinces announced in the last week followed similar announcements in Guangdong and Chongging earlier in the year.....
GSM - is the world's leading digital mobile phone standard and is used by:
- an estimated 311.2 million GSM subscribers worldwide at end May 2000
- almost 400 operators in service in 147 countries/areas on five continents
gsassociation.org
Guess what percent of US GDP can be attributed to trade with Latin America? That answer will give you an idea why ATT and SBC/BellSouth continue to extend the useful life of TDMA-EDGE. As reference, trade with other Asian countries accounts for about 35-40% of the GDP of the second largest economy in the world, Japan.
The Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC) announced TDMA-EDGE worldwide subscriber numbers have grown 87% over the past year, reaching nearly 41 million by the end of the 1st Quarter 2000. North American TDMA-EDGE subscribers increased by 98% and Latin American TDMA-EDGE subscribers grew an impressive 121%. "By the end of the first quarter of the new millennium, there were over 65 million TDMA-EDGE and analog customers being served by TDMA-EDGE network operators," commented Sheila Mickool, President of the UWCC.........
TDMA-EDGE currently serves over 22 million subscribers in North America and almost 17 million in Latin America. "TDMA-EDGE is the dominant wireless technology in the Latin American region," stated Dr. Richard Downes, UWCC Director of Latin America & the Caribbean. He added, "As the substantial subscriber base continues to grow, the economies of scale improve for the TDMA-EDGE operators, ultimately offering the best wireless service for the best price."
uwcc.org
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