SMT,
First let me say clearly that currently I am on side-line in regards the OSIP.
I ride stock from $2.5-7 to $25-28. Insiders sell-of and concern about PFE cancer collaboration future (all programs not only EGFr) were main reason for my action.
However, in your analysis (except TA which I do not understand and am not trying to understand because it can only confuse me and make things worse) you are wrong on many points:
1. <<Before the spike, OSIP had a market cap of approximately 400M. Biotech companies with a comparable level of ongoing research and sales had market caps of 250-350M, so OSIP was somewhat over priced at that time.>>
Give me example that I can respond.
2. <<Phase II trials have not yet begun>>
Two PII completed, third one ongoing.
3. <<Upon the completion of Phase III trials, there is no guarantee of FDA approval>>
There is no guaranty that PIII will be run. OSI will first expand clinical development with combination PIIb trials.
4. <<That would put trial completion some time in 2003, which is in complete agreement with the company's stated plan.>>
PFE and now OSIP development plan foresee drug marketing in 2003. However, I can comment on this because available clinical data (to me) are not sufficient for any projection.
5. <<Is a three-year-off maybe worth 200M to you? >>
Depend on status of the other programs, business plan, collaboration, cash positions, technology value,...
In short, OSIP is worth more than $200M. However, I do not base my investment on current worth, on what it may be (and will be) worth 3-5 years from now. That is the key for great investment return (not profit from trading).
6. I do not think that it is over-valued. Where will go from here, bits me. It is only guess.
As I said I have my own reasons for be on side-line. It doesn't mean that I am right or wrong. When I have clear picture on some additional issue I will take appropriate action. OSIP continue to be (as it was) on my high priority list and close follow-up.
Miljenko |
