Heinz:
Have spent some time digging into the RMBS patent scene. The more I dig, the more I like what I see. (g)
To start with, the stock price vaulted , not so much on the news as on the shorts diving for cover. (lousy pun)
Not to take anything away from that news, but once one has had a chance to examine it in more detail, it isn't quite as momentous as it first appeared, nor is it necessarily prologue to a signing up by all the other memory boys.
As I noted in an article several days ago, anything that ends up in a court room can be viewed as a coin toss, but so far, I don't envy the lawyers charged with supporting this particular patent. There may be several issues.
Here are just a few
Keep in mind that I am no patent expert but just a guy doing a bit of a dig, hence I might be miles off base, but the following, IMHO, may become contentious.
(a) The process. The actual element of the patent that RMBS suggests is the key one, doesn't appear (at least as I read it) in the initial patent, but in a follow-on "continuation". The "continuation's" relationship to the original submission isn't terribly direct (again, as I read it).
(b) The timing. JEDEC (an association of several memory producers) meetings took place during the period in question. The technology covered in the patent may have been discussed at those meetings. Jedec meetings at the time were predicated on the idea that material discussed would be considered "general knowledge" or "prior art". If it was discussed, then RMBS' claim may be tenuous.
(c) Other similar patents. There appear to be other patents that cover very similar ground. As this is a very technical territory, it is understandable that patents covering almost similar techniques can occur.
The current stock price presupposes that RMBS holds a valid patent and that the entire memory industry will roll over and pay royalties. Neither of these are more than suppositions at this time.
As I noted in earlier notes, the key for RMBS is still held by INTC. No Intel support, equals no RMBS. I am digging on this front as well but so far, no new ideas emerging. Intel seems to be very quiet on the topic of late. We shall see what the next "road map" (with major detours every week or so it seems), has to say.
While not oriented to the technical indicators, I can't help but note that the trading volume is shriveling up, even as the stock starts to look a bit heavy. If I were a betting man, tomorrow might not be a bad day to sniff at this interesting situation. (g)
Incidentally, the RMBS thread does have some every knowledgeable contributors (as well as some very emotional ones). It's worth wading through the reams of poop to screen out the occasional nugget.
best, Earlie |
