Agreed on QLGC, on VLNC, I am worried that this flag is in what should still be considered a down trend, and it has not exploited the advance of the NAZ of 30% plus from the late May lows to break out. The probability is higher, IMHO, that a retrenchment in the NAZ will cause a break of the support at $14 and the stop losses you mentioned. If good news about shipments and profits were imminent, the market would have smelled it before, IMHO. Right now, like you, I am waiting for a break, whichever direction it comes.
We finally got in the NAZ above the trading range of the recovery in early June (the bounce from which we were supposed to retrench "only" to 3400 according to those turnips, we never got half way on the NAZ), but my concern is that the Dow has not, and we are still in a "clear and present danger" of breaking down that diamond. I think that the NAZ will finally pull the Dow with it, but I would watch for the Dow not breaking 10300, if it does, my current bullishness will have to be revised.
Zeev
Zeev |
