I checked my model and I did have $.13, not the $.19 that I cited, which was my number for BOBJ this quarter. Nevertheless I was not impressed with the revenue number for the quarter, nor the future guidance. The BI growth was the one bright spot, coming in at 46%. After being flat for years, non BI sales are starting to drop rapidly, however, and are now falling at a 17% clip.
Regarding the BI growth, at 46% they are barely holding their own. BOBJ is showing about 47% a year growth, BRIO is growing at 52% a year, and MSTR is growing at about 70% a year. I fail to see how COGN is "gaining market share".
All in all I thought it was a basically OK report. Pretty much in line with estimates, and certainly no positive surprises either for the current quarter or future quarters. My guess is that the stock is flat to slightly down tomorrow. I wouldn't expect a big move in either direction.
I currently am out of COGN, and am not planning on re-entering in the immediate future. Good luck,
Carl |
