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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (905)6/22/2000 11:39:00 AM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (3) of 57684
 
I've been hearing Commerce One is being heavily shorted on the rationale that the Appnet acquisition is a sign of trouble that will come up later. Perhaps the thinking is that Oracle et al have beaten CMRC because of their one-stop, deep resources to get these exchanges up and running and CMRC needs to respond.

Another short argument is that Ariba's model of less transaction pricing and more software subscriptions is the better one.

Final argument is that Appnet slows the growth rate quite a bit.

I am long a ton of Ariba and own October calls on CMRC. Price Waterhouse is committed to getting 2000 bodies trained for Commerce One projects. My opinion is that CMRC is loaded with so much business, it did the acquisition to respond to what customers wanted. Too much demand is not a negative, in my opinion.

My thought is, Ariba is the franchise in the space but business is so robust in B2B, a quality #2 player is an attractive long as well. Buying the October calls gets you a cheap look at 2 earnings reports and if that doesn't get CMRC going, I won't want to be long CMRC anyway.

By the way, I would rethink Amazon if you haven't already, I am short AMZN, long WBVN.

What are your favorites here?
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