Tim, I leave for an hour and all hell breaks loose, I have some 7 messages and a similar number of PM's. What happened? I have checked on Yahoo, and apart of a short blip on CBS re Hitachi settlement, I see nothing, where is actual news release? I lucked out getting back in at $97.5 just before the close. The stock was gyrating violently on my streamer, and actually showed a lower closing ($97-1/8).
In any event, I saw on island few minutes ago some trading close to $140. I think we might have an interesting day tomorrow, but I am not going to stay for too long. At $150 this has a market cap of $15 Billions, and that implies to me future royalties on $150 Billion, I do not see the DRAM market that big for the next five years. The highest estimate I have seen is $75 Billions in two years and going down from there. I think this estimate is inflated, I have "only " $55 Billion as peak shipments per year of DRAM in the next few years, and that should be next year.
Having said that, I still see RMBS getting to "overvaluation" (I had $165 to $180 once $115 is breached, and in few months, not a day <G>). My strategy will be to trade the new range, once I find out what it is. All the good news is out here and after a mother of all short squeezes in the morning, I will cash my chips and try and recapture those $26 RMBS still "owes" me <VBG> (from $59.25, plus $12.5 trading in the last week to $97.5).
Zeev |
