Doug, why the disinterest is easily explained...since Paul Volcker's tenure at the Fed we have had a long period of disinflation, the 'downwave' in terms of the Kondratyev wave theory. during this period, paper assets tend to outperform hard assets. interest in gold depends imo on the perception that the monetary authorities have lost control over inflation. in the downwave, inflation is simply channeled into paper assets (note, it is certainly not absent, as the immense growth in the US money supply attests to).
i certainly do agree that gold is a 'political' metal, as a rise in its price would be seen as a sign of a monetary policy failure.
i also acknowledge that the apparently totally out-of-control gold carry trade is a huge incentive for the players in this market to keep the price as low as possible.
however, i am of the opinion that a market can only be successfully manipulated in the direction of its primary trend.
for instance, at the onset of the Asian crisis in '97, the stock index futures were obviously manipulated the day after the stock market's huge plunge. it was impossible not to notice. but i think it only worked because the primary trend of the market was still an uptrend. if it had changed, the lows seen on the big down day would have been violated at a later stage.
the same goes for gold...once the primary trend changes from bear to bull, the manipulations will fail.
regards,
hb |
