It's almost like "old home week!" A little action in UP stock brings the "old" lurkers crawling out of their hiding places.
I still check the thread frequently.
On July 8, 1998, I wrote, "I plan to hang onto my little bit of UP, even if it declines, until we see the earnings I believe it is capable of making, even if it takes a few years."
But, like Travelling Man, I cashed in most of my UP last December.
Two things increased my perception of the risk beyond my limits of tolerance.
1/ The wells that were drilled at no direct cost to UP and that UP had counted on to give it cash flow turned out to basically be bummers. These wells were drilled in the best locations they could pick. Apparently, the gas was there but the rocks holding it were too non-porous to get significant flow. That was the story, too, at Lizard Head and at Lovatt Draw (which, I understand, had good flow right after the fracs but quickly faded to an uneconomical level).
That told me that, yes, there's a trillion cu. ft. or more of gas in the Green River, but, except for Stud Horse and a couple of exceptions like Mesa 15-8 and Stewart Point, most of it appears to be in rocks that are too tight to get much flow.
2/ The decision to reduce the number of directors to, I believe, three, and to switch the locus of incorporation from British Columbia to the Yukon, where regulations are not as strict was the second thing. The British Columbia incorporation regulations are known worldwide for being liberal. So the need for still less regulation raised a red flag for me. Those kinds of moves usually signal plans for shenanigans that are less than on the "up and up."
The risk became too great for my tolerance---even though my wife insists that I am an eternally overly optimistic GAMBLER in stocks.
I took a huge loss, but the oil/gas co. into which I put the money I got from selling UP has gone up 300% since I put the UP money into it---400% since I bought into it 6 weeks earlier.
I still have a little bit of UP. Wish I'd had more, the last couple of weeks or so.
Hang in there. The five years that we predicted in 1998 that it would take for UP to become an "investment" still has a ways to go.
GREAT to hear from you all. Waiting to hear the latest tid bit that Lou unearths.
Hickory |
