Time to look at the DJIA again.
we have been in a pretty boring sideways market as far
as the DJIA and SPX are concerned For Months.
This explains a bit of my absence in posting chart analysis
here...not much happening. Outside of the NASD.
It has truly been a stockpickers market.
However, lets see what these DJIA charts look like Now.
1. we still have this 14 month diamond unfolding, and
unfortunately we have what appears to be a bearish
descending triangle since the april lows, setting up
geocities.com
this is no est bueno.
2. we are perilously close to the major uptrend line on
the log scaled chart dating back to 1994.
geocities.com
based on my evaluation of sentiment, put-call ratio's,
individual stock patterns, cyclic considerations and
macroeconomic evidence...(ie energy complex and
the inflationary CRB, USD weakness, etc.) and stock
valuation excesses....
I suspect that we will break the trendline and retest
the 9731 area and very possibly (over 50%) break below it
to the 9340 or 8970 level, basis the cash DJIA in Q 3.
I have mentioned that the Genome and Biotechs are the
"ZeitGeist" of the current market environement and it
would not surprise me to see them and the broader market
make another top around the time of the CRA-US Govt
Genome project completion announcement that should
occur, possibly in the Rose Garden, next week.
The biotech broke their parabolic rise between March 7th and
March 10th this year and it would be fitting to see them
cap off this latest leg of market action.
3. Looking at the 15 year trendline of the DJIA on
Log scale (where percentage moves are equal on all parts
of the chart) It is obvious that we could see a bit of a
sell off if this blue trendline is broken
geocities.com
the nearby lower Fibonacci support levels will provide
traction if we do see a break of the trendline.
Here is the Daily NASD chart that illustrates the
fact that we have now retraced a very orthodox 50% of
the entire decline from 3-10-2000 to the 5-24-2000 low.
geocities.com
some cycle projections indicate that our equity market
rally of the past number of weeks may extend into the end of
June, or give a shallow selloff and then a further advance
into July 21st to 26, but we need to be more cognizant of
the dangers in here.
I can point to a number of my posts on Tom's Piff OT thread
from April 14-17th, and from May 22-24th, and I was talking
about buying on weakness as a theme, here we may have
the polar opposite.....time shall tell.
I do expect to be more active in my market analysis
on this thread as our ancillary partnership activities
Heat Up. :)
John |
