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Technology Stocks : p-com (pcms)
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To: lazarre who wrote (1423)6/23/2000 5:39:00 PM
From: Rob Preuss   of 1461
 
What do I think?

I think I've never had much faith in PCMS. Especially
not in their management. Mostly I watch what's going
on with PCMS because they are a DMIC competitor. As
you know, I am a strong proponent of DMIC.

Still, I bought and sold a few shares of PCMS from
time to time... and made a few dollars. Mostly I've
missed their big moves up (and been a little jealous
when I've seen others catch these moves).

Your theory that PCMS could be ripe for a takeover
is an interesting one. Any potential buyer would
need to ask whether its better to buy or to grow
the technology in-house... if they already have
the tech resources to do it in-house (as I suspect
they might if, as you suggest, they're only trying
to fill a hole in their portfolio), then the only
advantage to buying is a faster time-to-market.

But would that be enough? I think the PCMS P-MP
technology is behind that of Netro (which, in
turn, is behind that of Ensemble) so your
theoretical buyer would have to be buying PCMS
for whatever PCMS has up its sleeve in the
realm of new unreleased products/technology.

But if PCMS has something very attractive up
its sleeve in the realm of new unreleased
products/technology... would PCMS management
be willing to sell to a buyer? My guess is no,
not unless they were terribly desperate to
get into someone's deep pockets and so were
effectively forced to sell... I think this
management would rather stay on board.

So that's what I think - I don't see much
chance of a takeover (unless things get
truely desperate for the management).

Have you got more to say about why you think
that PCMS might become a takeover target?

Rob
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