MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 691.72

-0.1%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (55157)	6/23/2000 11:21:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Bobby, i'm contemplating the possibility that the XAU's trend line break may be a fake-out, similar to the wrong-way initial triangle break last September. but...i'm not certain. we could be in for even more capitulation selling, although the XAU's ratio to the PoG is already at an extreme, discounting a lower PoG. i am taking a longer term view...i think the second half of the year may be giving us a decent gold rally...as to when it will exactly begin, i'm agnostic. i know that the supply demand factors have taken a favorable turn, so the downside should be limited. the dollar index seems to have made an a-b-c type corrective wave...if it turns down again, that may produce the necessary impetus to get things going. not to forget, the dollar index comes off a secular bullish consensus reading of over 90% at the top...that should be good for more downside, in view of the exploding current account deficit. regards, hb

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