Just popping in for a minute, Mike. I see Frank corrected you on the pipe size. No problem. 6M bps is doable today if you're w/i 12K ft. If you're w/i 9K ft, you can get 8M bps over DSL, still insufficient to deliver video.
Frank brings up an important issue re: video, and that is HDTV. I don't think the telcos will provision VDSL or any other platform that is incapable of delivering as sufficient selection of HDTV programming. It may seem unnecessary today, but it going to be necessary by the end of the decade, and the telcos like to think out that far when they invest in new platforms.
Yes, economics are clearly the issue. Well, SBC is spending $7B on Pronto that will deliver DSL and a plethora of advanced services to subscribers when completed. So how much marginal expense will SBC be required to spend to deploy VDSL? I would argue not as much since the backbone will have already been built. I think, deployment will be on a area-by-area basis as it will entail deepen the fiber closer to subscriber premises, where IMHO, most of the cost will lie.
I think what is different going forward, however, is competitive economics as opposed to "regulatory" economics. Convergence, as you have stated, is the driving force underlying new investment. Convergence means competition, and competition means risk, which is something historically regulated telcos are now getting used to. Some have seen the "light;" others have yet to find it.
Gotta roll. Good night. |
