(((German telephone giant Deutsche Telekom AG wants to enter the lucrative U.S. market via the purchase of a major U.S. firm and may try to buy Sprint Corp if its merger plans fail with WorldCom, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.)))
I'm trying to fathom ongoing telco globalization's possible effects on CDMA politics. German, French and British telcos want in the U.S market. DoCoMo wants in everywhere. Of course, Verizon is here already.
1) Initially, my knee-jerk reaction was that this might infect U.S. telcos with the prevailing Eurocentric, Socialist, Protectionist position. (DoCoMo, of course, is politically agnostic in this regard, and will tag along with the Euros as long as it serves its purposes).
2) Verizon, so far, contradicts these concerns. Would situations change, however, if European telcos owned Sprint as well - if Europe owned the 2 major U.S. CDMA interests? Would they wield this position to strangle U.S. CDMA in the cradle? Would they suffer stunted U.S. growth now, and stall for the illusive prospect of wCDMA in future - for the greater glory of Europe's wireless vision?
3) Or, does this trend work against a unified Europe? As telcos become truly global, does this encourage, no, require, a growing political agnosticism? Will European politics, and Finland's importance, wane in the face of global economic prerogatives, profits and margins? Will the best, most advanced, most economic, most profit-generating technologies matter more than theology? Verizon presently supports this thesis.
4) I'm feeling much better about #3.
5) I see DoCoMo as the weakest link, and the first skin to peel from Europe's onion. Perhaps this is even more the case if they own a piece of Korean CDMA. What DoCoMo wants most of all is I-Mode to grow and spread, with its value-added services. Fast data rates and GPS (targeted ads specific to locale) are needed to realize I-Mode's potential. They now have a leader's advantage with I-Mode, and this advantage must be exploited sooner rather than later.(INSP is presently chasing the same dream, along with YHOO, INKT, IIIM, etc, etc. )
DoCoMo, as we know, has its own flavor of wCDMA (whose royalties would benefit itself). Is there a chance that Europe will support DoCoMo's flavor as the universal European standard? No, and I suspect DoCoMo is more aware of this than we. Still, it is a card that they now have to play, or more accurately, flash around and threaten to play at some undefined time in the future.
In light of these conditions, DoCoMo's priorities must and will bias I-Mode as a "property". With 3G Korea and DDI Japan happening, DoCoMo will be unable to afford waiting for the questionable fruits of its second-class wCDMA European status to ripen, while their I-Mode time advantage withers on the vine.
We will see DoCoMo embrace CDMA. We will see I-Mode in Korea and China and throughout Japan (including DDI). China will not be satisfied with their 2% cut of GSM production and will build their own CDMA systems, with QCOM's guidance. QCOM will also help China develop its own proprietary CDMA standard for suitable (stationary) applications.
Fortress Europe will become isolated. Without Asia, Europe's global game is lost.
NOK will never sign a direct agreement with QCOM.
regards,
blg |
