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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Casaubon who wrote (55184)	6/24/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) of 99985

what if they raise 1/4%? Do we then get the "they'll never raise again after this one, rally"? Causaubon: The economic data shows a slowing of the economy... This is based on the first three or four rate hikes... There is a lag effect... The fifth and sixth rate hikes haven't even impacted the economy yet... So, it's highly unlikely that we would get any more than one more 1/4 point hike this time around... That would set up three to four of the past rate hikes yet to impact an already slowing economy... If the FED is serious about a soft landing, they'd better put that Rate Hike Gun back in the holster... As such, the confluence of the end of the rate hike cycle and the presidential election period, and a good earnings stream, we should have a favorable market environment... So, I think the FED will be done as of Tuesday afternoon until the end of the year, unless they find it necessary to reduce rates if there is concern about a "not so soft" landing... Jim

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