B) Update on CYTC
Rated a BUY
Revs 16.2M to 18.8M to 21.3M to 24.7M to 28.8M Mar00 per daily charts
EPS 0.02 to 0.03 to 0.03 to 0.07 to 0.14 Mar00 per daily stock
Zacks est 0.13 for this quarter and 0.16 for Sep00.
15-May-00 12:00 -- 13:00 ET
TriPath Imaging (TPTH) 4 3/4 -1/4: Cytyc Corp. (CYTC) files suit against TriPath Imaging alleging that TriPath has distributed and continues to distribute false and/or misleading information to current and potential purchasers of Cytyc's products in violation of federal, state and common law. Cytyc is seeking monetary and injunctive relief;
52-Week Low on 28-June-1999 $9.25
Recent Price $54.938
52-Week High on 19-June-2000 $67.75
Market Capitalization $2.02B
Shares Outstanding 36.7M
Float 25.7M
Price/Book (mrq) 18.72
Price/Earnings (ttm) 199.78
Price/Sales (ttm) 22.34
Total Cash (mrq) $63.0M
Having rules you follow in trading is very good, but knowledge is even better. If you don't know enough about the company you invest in, you will watch a drop in price and not know why it is happening. If, on the other hand, you have done your diligence on the company, you are more likely to understand and even anticipate the short term moves. Take CYTC - with the recent run to the high 60's, those of us who have followed this for years, know the products and strategy and market potential, the short term pullback we are seeing is expected but long term prospects are still excellent. If you don't know anything about the company you might assume the run was over, finally the stock is fully or over valued, but you would be wrong. My 2nd thought is that the investors cash situation weighs heavily in how you construct your rules. If you invest heavily on margin, you are forced to sell out of losers even if your diligence suggests you should hold on, and you sometimes have to lock in profits when you should have stayed on board longer. If your cash position is strong with little or no margin, you can afford to make longer term decisions. 6/23/00 on yahoo
Level 2 gives the trade data. It looked like there was an institution out there dumping. this is info i have gotten from others who are seem to watch level 2 quotes. INCA (a MM) was coming in with big blocks everytime the price would seem to rebound. obviously not enough buyers to keep the stock from sinking. probably taking out many people's stops. there were alot of small 100-500 trades on the big downswings. 6/23/00 on Yahoo
I just checked an intraday price-volume chart ... no real substantial trading before about 2:30 ... the 15-minute volume+ chart shows a couple small selling spikes just after 10 and just after 12 of about 20k and 30k shares, respectively ... starting at 2:30, selling spikes ramped up from 20k (at 2:30) to 40k to 60k to 120k (at 3:15) and back to 40k at 3:30 ... there was net buying of about 70k in the last 15 minutes of the trading session when the price went from its bottom for the day of 52 to the closing of 54 15/16 The 1-minute Volume+ chart shows two selling spikes of about 35k and 75k between 3:00 and 3:30 (are 1-minute spikes of this size indicative of institutional trades?) ... the rebound in the last half-hour doesn't show any substantial spikes in the 1-minute chart. 6/23/00 on yahoo
Friday June 23, 2:59 pm Eastern Time
Company Press Release
SOURCE: Quest Diagnostics Incorporated
Quest Diagnostics Introduces HPV High-Risk Reflex Testing For Inconclusive Thinprep Pap Tests
TETERBORO, N.J., June 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (NYSE: DGX - news), the nation's leading provider of cervical cancer screening services, announced it is launching a new service to perform high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing for women with inconclusive results on their ThinPrep© Pap Test(TM) for cervical cancer or its precursors. Starting July 1, 2000, physicians will have the option to request that ThinPrep Pap Tests with inconclusive, or so-called ``ASCUS,'' results automatically receive the HPV DNA Test in three regional Quest Diagnostics laboratories, including Teterboro, New Jersey; Wallingford, Connecticut; and Detroit, Michigan.
In March 2000, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the use of this DNA-based technology, which detects the 13 key types of human papillomavirus that indicate a high risk of developing cervical cancer, as a follow-up to patients whose Pap tests have inconclusive, or ``ASCUS,'' results. ASCUS, or Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance, is a category of Pap test results that typically occurs in three to five per cent of patients. It is a source of frustration for clinicians because of the uncertainty about what they should do next for their patients, which sometimes results in further treatment that is costly and, possibly, unnecessary.
``We are now able to reduce the uncertainty for patients and their doctors that is associated with ASCUS results,'' said Joy Nassif, Vice President of Anatomic Pathology. ``Quest Diagnostics is the first laboratory to offer this advanced high risk DNA test as a reflex from the ThinPrep specimen vial, potentially saving the patient another visit to her gynecologist.''
As an established technology, HPV testing is currently covered by Medicare and many other health care plans. Quest Diagnostics is working with major insurers to review current coverage in light of the additional volumes of testing expected, coupled with lower anticipated volumes of repeat Pap tests and other diagnostic procedures such as colposcopies and biopsies. In a May 1999 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers at Kaiser Permanente (Manos and Kinney) validated the potential for improved patient care at lower cost through this combination of reflex testing. Preliminary information from the National Cancer Institute's ``ASCUS Low-Grade Triage Study'' (ALTS) indicates this may be the preferred approach for clinicians in the future.
An independent market survey conducted by Quest Diagnostics in the Fall of 1999 indicated that physicians who supplemented Pap testing with HPV tests on ASCUS results performed fewer repeat Pap tests, colposcopies and biopsies. Nearly all of the participants in the survey foresaw increased utilization of HPV testing as more clinical data becomes available.
Until now, physicians were required to place a separate order for HPV testing, which included detection of both high-risk and low-risk viral subtypes at twice the cost. By making the new high-risk HPV DNA test offering available as a reflex to ASCUS ThinPrep Pap Test results, patients with ASCUS results receive the double benefit of only requiring one specimen, and not having to wait for months for re-testing. Traditionally, when a second specimen is required following an abnormal result, patients are required to wait three to six months for a repeat Pap test to avoid false-negative results. With the additional HPV information, physicians can decide to proceed directly to additional treatment or return the patient to periodic screening.
``We feel the recent FDA approval for the high-risk HPV DNA test, along with the growing body of clinical data showing the benefits of immediate follow-up of ASCUS Pap results with this test, provides a clear opportunity for improved health care for our female patients,'' said Dr. Harvey W. Kaufman, Chief Laboratory Officer for Quest Diagnostics. ``By performing this single-probe test from the ThinPrep vial, we are able to provide a unique combination of better treatment for patients in a more cost effective manner for insurance carriers.
``The ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with waiting months for additional testing, or having additional procedures such as a colposcopy performed when it may not be necessary, is a tremendous step forward in women's health care,'' Dr. Kaufman continued. ``Quest Diagnostics is continuously seeking ways to improve the quality of life for women through improved screening and diagnostic information.''
Quest Diagnostics is the nation's leading provider of diagnostic testing, information and services with annualized revenues of more than $3 billion. The testing performed on human specimens helps doctors diagnose, treat and monitor disease; enables employers to detect workplace drug abuse; and supports pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in clinical trials of new therapeutics worldwide. Quest Informatics analyzes laboratory and other medical data to help health care providers improve the care of patients. Additional company information can be found on the Internet at: questdiagnostics.com.
ThinPrep is a registered trademark and ThinPrep Pap Test is a trademark of Cytyc Corporation.
SOURCE: Quest Diagnostics Incorporated
This is a positive and continues to validate CYTC's products. The test specified by Quest uses the sample taken from the ThinPrep vial. The CYTC ThinPrep will still be utilized as the initial test method. The Quest test would be added in extreme cases where doctors need an immediate follow on for high risk patients. The market has reacted negatively because they don't understand the technology (it isn't competitive, but rather complimentary) and this has created an excellent buying opportunity. Remember, we only have 20% of the US market and now have begun expansion to Europe. Bring on those Chinese women and the rest of Asia/Pacific.
Summary
Alot FUD now. Knife is falling. Need to see it build a base, but stock not touch 200 day EMA in year. Decline is off low volume. Buy at $50 if it is available. I have to sleep on the price.
Jack
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