RMBS
<<I have no regrets, because I followed a good process, and that process led me to pass on investing in RMBS. As to whether RMBS should be bought now, we should again follow a good process and see where it leads us.>>
As usual, Plutus, you make excellent sense (well, that is, I agree with you). Now on to the current questions, which seem to me to be three:
First, are the recent settlements the harbinger of more to come, and do they represent the formation of a powerful value chain? The answer here seems to be "probably," but we need to follow this carefully.
Second, how much revenue is Rambus likely to receive in years to come, from what, and given that is it over, under, or fairly valued right now? There seem to be real differences of opinion here, and we need some serious working over of the figures involved before a consensus can be reached.
Third, there seems to be this annoying issue of the warrants, which casts doubt on why the settlements were reached and thus whether they really represent a coalescing of the trend around the adoption of Rambus technology. For those who aren't familiar with the question, see these summaries:
tomshardware.com
Message 13939631
Bulls, I realize that Tom's Hardware may not be trustworthy regarding the technical specs stuff, but this is a separate point, so merely defaming the messenger is not a valid response. The point is not whether the warrant ploy is ethical or not, but whether it is masking a very different reality regarding the technology adoption question.
all help from knowledgeable people in answering these questions is much appreciated.
tekboy/Ares@uncommitted.com |
