MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Casaubon who wrote (55217)	6/25/2000 11:11:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Casaubon, the key IMHO is the price of oil. High oil prices is a severe damper on the economy, even that it is only at an historic level of blanced pricing, if adjusted to inflation and dollar appreciation. Present oil prices coupled with bank loan write off's and the administration square against any other tightening I suspect a delayed interest hike bye the next meeting. Gore being in potential trouble will also not help the FED, and the dollar for what ever reason bounced above the 107 level. The argument being that the recent 0.5% was above the gradual 0.25% and it's effects should be monitored. Also in the FED favor is the relatively orderly bubble deflation ...... AMZN being a classic example. I think the tendency in the market is to slowly exit the classic bubble stocks, and have "a see and wait" stance. If the market will move again higher (mostly bubble stocks) a 0.5% interest hike is almost certain in August. IMHO teh FED would like to see a gradual deflation of the P/E multiple in the stock market. BWDIK Haim

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