Hiya Gersh
well my computer crashed and burned on Fri..dead...
i am using my wife's till it get's better...POS..
i ordered a DELL...
as for everyone's argument about what the FED is trying to do here, i totally disagree...
they are not targeting the empl market...no way...they will slow the economy to about 4% GDP and not much lower because of their new found understanding of productivity...
under no circumstances do they want a recession...this guy lived thru that debacle once before...Alan G is a very cautious guy...he sure as hell doesn't want to kill this incredible expansion...
and as for slowing??? yeah we'll slow, but it won't hurt that much...i just hope he doesn't overshooot here to the opposite side of the equation...a hard fall will hurt many people, and it won't be us...
as for the markets?...i think they are simply trying to value what they are actually seeing...we are not worth 5000+++ on the NAZ but neither are we worth 3000...that was obvious...
so we'll chop around here in a trading range thats perfect for hit and run style daytrading, either spooos or stocks..
more importantly the OIL bullshit..is just that...yes it;s high, but so what??? it won't stay up there very long...when extreames are prevelent they always find a way to reverse themselves..like in $10 buck OIL, and Now $35 buck OIL....silly...yes the CPI & PPI will be higher than last month, but we already know that, heck gas prices in the midwest plunged .25cents...in the last 1-2 weeks????
how'd they get up so high so fast??? price gouging???, you bet..taking advantage of the spike in OIL..to hurt the comsumer...
as for inflation, hey we can stand 4-5% inflation standing on our heads...thats not much...not for this economy..you talked about comsumer spending??? they are all fat and sassy...sure they'll pull in there horns, but that will be good...but they'll continue to spend...no doubt about that...people will still go on vacations this summer, driving or flying..noone is canceling anything because of Gas or Money problems...
while i am cautious here, i still feel the downside near term is not as rewarding as the potential upside surprise...
almost all the options AG has to use next Wed should be bullish..
to me the best would be 25 beeps, and then to neutral...we'll rally from there...even no rate hike and a tightening bias..would be cool...
worse case is .50(don't think so), and a move to neutral...
the FED sees signs of slowing and the last .75 is not priced in yet...
my best guess is he'll stand pat with a tightening bias...and probaly raise just .25 in Aug for the last and final move...
of course we can argue this from now till dooms day..but i'll trade whats in front of me...and not try to guess..my bias is neutral toward bullish right now...
if things change then so will i...i currently have 3 open longs..period..2 are good, 1 is underwater...no biggie..and i am going to cash almost every nite...i like that a lot...
anyway i lost my entire e-mail from my hard drive...so i'll buzz everyone when i get back in action...
take it easy, i'm going to the pool, for lunch, some friends just dropped over, we'll swim and talk, and eat...and guess what the topic of cobversation will be???...yeah..the markets...thats all we talk about..what do you like, what do you think...
whew!!!..nuttsy huh???
regards Jerry |
