Apollo,
you're a sweet guy, at least in your non-curmudgeonly version, but you're no craps player.
Why not? Well, first, if you really took such a mechanical approach to gambling odds you wouldn't hit the tables in the first place, but buy casino stocks instead, since the house always has the advantage. Second, if you did happen to saunter over to where the fun was, you'd only bet on "Don't Pass," which statistically is the least bad wager on the table (except for odds, of course). Very curmudgeonly, to be sure, but we'd soon run you off or walk to another table ourselves.
My point is that of course the gambler's fallacy is a fallacy, the rolls of dice are independent, and betting on the nine has no effect on the 8 or 10 hitting (or the 9 hitting again, for that matter). But you have to get beyond such mundane trivialities to enjoy the game. True craps players are more like Voltaire than like Merlin; they listen to their Angels, pays their money, and takes their chances.
ctb/A@sortoflikeRambusinvestors,Isuppose.com |
