JDN, my opinion is they will split the stock when it reaches and holds 115, and there is an earnings release about that time ...
... but, perish the thought, suppose we get to late October without having split the stock again ... and the price is 63.
... understand, PLEASE, that I believe the whole positive story about Sun Microsystems ... and I love the management, the technology and everything else ...
BUT, my strong opinion is that this market is highly overvalued, and with interest rates starting to slow the U.S. economy (to who knows what level) and when the squeeze starts on profits (unless international can carry the profit growth load), SUNW is not likely to be able to hold its value (especially if the overall market declines significantly).
If we, as a world economy are in about the same place as we were in the fall of 1999, then maybe SUNW will go to 120, a split will be announced, and by the time the split takes place, we will probably be at 150 ... then you are correct.
By the way, even with great earnings this quarter and next, what do you think the P/E will be with a price of 150?
... I think there are better fields to plow out there ... like shorting the S&P and/or the Nasdaq.
Ken Wilson |
