thanks for the clarification.
The reason I've been trying to drum up RMBS discussion here, in case it hasn't been clear, is that I think the recent settlements represent a potentially major change in the RMBS story, and that the "old" reasons for being wary do not necessarily apply.
Those old reasons, after all, related chiefly to the place of Rambus technology in the TALC. By late 1999 there was general agreement here, I think, that either the chasm had not been crossed or that RMBS was still in the bowling alley (i.e., with game machines as one of the knocked-down pins). This is why most concluded that it was too early or inappropriate to invest.
Well, the recent settlements seem to imply that RDRAM adoption will proceed apace and, even more importantly, that Rambus will get royalties from SDRAM as well. If indeed this turns out to be true, then the old objections no longer apply.
That doesn't mean, however, that new objections have not emerged to take their place. For example, the fact of the SDRAM market not being in a current or likely future tornado means that its revenues can be more precisely ascertained, and factored into an appropriate RMBS valuation range. That is why I've been so hung up on getting people who actually know this stuff to offer opinions on projected revenue and present valuation.
Now keeping in mind that I couldn't tell a DRAM from a DEWE, my current take is this: even if Rambus is indeed retrospectively declared (not crowned, Mike, that's for kings) the gorilla of SDRAM and RDRAM, it still might not be sensible to invest in it now, because it won't have the growth potential from those areas that our other young gorillas can expect. So the key question becomes, what other tornados can be projected, in what areas, and what kinds of upwardly-spiralling revenues might those bring in? This is where the communications circuits come in, BTW, because some of them might adopt Rambus technology...
Anyway, even though I took a small restarter position the other day, I am not pushing any particular line on this one. (I am perfectly prepared to sell if we conclude the future is not especially bright.) I just think that the old skepticism about RMBS that thread elders used to exhibit ("we don't do shiny pebbles, sniff sniff") is no longer appropriate--even if some new skepticism might be.
tekboy/Ares@eweewenet.com |
