The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude

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To: hman who wrote (36073)	6/27/2000 2:51:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (2) of 79173

David, The 2nd leg of the Summer rally attempted an initial move on 6/13. Eyes are on the Fed and 6/13 was apparently too early. Now the S&P has started off the same low again with 2 days to go before the Fed decision. The minutes of the last session show that AG favored just a 1/4% increase and was outvoted by other board members to raise 1/2%. It seems to me that 1/4% has been fully priced in with most "analysts" calling for no change this time around. The last consumer confidence #s were still very strong and existing home sales rose just over 4% in May after a slight decline in April. Even though energy prices are not heavily taken into account due to inherent volatility...if higher oil spills over into other pricing, the Fed will add more weight to it. The administrative sabre-rattling over high gas prices could very well mean that the problem is alot more serious than what a few procedural tweaks and prods can accomplish. AG may press for no change this time but he was outvoted last time. There is the possibility that the board will go with 1/4% and shift to a neutral bias. No change would definitely spark a strong 2nd leg to the Summer rally. 1/4% with a neutral bias appears priced in so that would allow for decent continuation of the 2nd leg as long as things don't get too overheated by Wed at 2:15 EST. The financial sector has a good bounce to it so far. The market's chart and technical profile is in a middle range relative to the last 6 to 8 months. Advertised budget surpluses have increased. The prospect that interest rates are nearing an intermediate top is greater since 1/4% would allow for the perception that since it's less than the 1/2% of last meeting, the rate hike cycle is decelerating. The human genome map news adds a bit of flair. Overall, the situation looks significantly more positive than negative except that volume has not yet returned to the levels of Oct '99 to Jan 2000. It all really comes down to volume so watch for that late Wed through next week. Doug R PS; And a big thank you to Blackjack (Myrtle Beach attendee) for pointing out to me via PM the perfectly boneheaded move I made by buying ADTK while utterly failing to recognize that it was above its IL. Sheez...one of my own friggin' copyrighted chart formations and I didn't catch it. Unbelievable. Thanks Jack.

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