from a Yahoo post:
"As for other info, Bear Stearns came out with a note this morning on component distributor ARW, who pre-announced that they'll blow away consensus estimates this quarter. BS consequently raised their target price, their earnings estimates, and reiterated a "buy" rating. In the same note, the analyst said ARW's upside surprise bodes well for passive component manufacturers--i.e., AVX, VSH, and KEM.
More and more, then, analysts are rallying around this sector. In the past 48 hours, DLJ, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, SG Cowen, Salomon Smith Barney, and Merrill Lynch have said they expect a blow-out quarter for passive component manufacturers. This consensus represents an important positive because in situations where stocks are tanking for no apparent reason, as has been the case with AVX, and, to a lesser extent, KEM and VSH, analysts are paid to be right. They put their credibility on the line by more or less saying: "the market is wrong; reasons for selling are unfounded and people should, if anything, be buying." Analysts can't afford to be wrong--a wrong reading means a loss of credibility and scores of pissed-off investors. When I worked as a market maker for Bear Stearns, I saw first-hand the care with which analysts make recommendations when those recommendations run counter to prevailing sentiment. They don't do so lightly. In all, then, the consensus that has emerged over the past couple days should hearten nervous longs.
Finally, I spent about 30 minutes looking over yesteraday's pricing action on AVX. I didn't see anything especially positive or negative. The stock got a nice pop at the opening, then sort of petered out throughout the day. The only significant block trade (180,400 shares)took place on the open at 24 1/2. It was crossed (if you don't know what "crossed" means, send me a message) in Philadelphia and was executed on a zero-plus tick, so I couldn't tell if it was a buy or a sale. Other than that, the number of block trades decreased compared to previous days, and the stock sold off on lighter volume. Are we at a bottom? From a technical standpoint, I'd say it looks that way. But then again, I don't believe in technical analysis, so I don't know how much weight you should give that opinion.
So things looks good. I'm looking to buy any weakness, I think you should, too. Remember: keep a reasonable timeframe, don't live-and-die according to each tick. Good luck."
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