Sure, Jon - just drop me a line in advance and you'll get the usual mobile telecom tour of Helsinki. I've got it down to a routine by now. It's fifty bucks per yankee and no group discounts. Just kidding. I'm in Brentwood now, but should be in Finland in late July and August. And no, Ruffian, I didn't visit The House. Though I got a sick little thrill from driving down that freeway in a white SUV.
What was interesting about last quarter was the futility of trying too impose your feelings on the market ahead of earnings. I'm not naming no names, but some analysts with a long-standing antipathy towards Nokia tried to boost Mot and push down Nok during the weeks leading towards 1Q numbers.
Of course - it backfired horribly. The negative comments about Nokia's ability to maintain margins and market share created the backdrop for the earnings surprise. The catty remarks about Nokia's problems with Sprint and Verizon led the US investors to expect softness in phone sales growth - and when the global sales blew out the barn doors, the overall feel-good factor created the foundation Nokia used to climb to an all-time high.
The exact opposite happened with Motorola - its well-meaning, though slightly dim friends on Wall Street tried to build up a come-back story *before* the earnings came out. Of course, hyping the stock you love ahead of the earnings season is the worst possible tactical move. The expectations rose so much that the phone margin problems triggered a series of stomach-turning dips.
So I don't understand the anxiety about Nokia's current crop of rumors: acquisition of Qualcomm, profit warning, etc. This is the same pattern that we had before the 1Q and that run of negative sentiment was the best possible set-up for the actual results.
Pre-earnings euphoria is the worst enemy of any investor. If it leads to an appearance of not beating the numbers, the stock loses its lustre. Once you get that reputation of "disappointing", it tends to stick. Nokia's often nameless detractors who float rumors ahead of earnings are the best friends of the shareholders - without them, the expectations would have run out of control by now.
Tero |
