sndk......
SNDK was widely dismissed as a pebble by many, but then has come back into favor recently for some reason that has yet to be explained (since the story has simply not changed that much).
I liked your post overall, but thought I would amplify on your SNDK comments. This is JMHO.....
I don't think SNDK was ever in favor; hence, it is not "coming back into favor" now. I think it was raised a few times from Spring '99 to December '99, but never made the cut for very serious introspection. There are at least 2 reasons for this.
1.) We were drowning, as a relatively new thread, in gorilla candidate nominees, and could only focus on just so many equities at the same time, while also breathlessly watching Qcom and JDSU run for most of '99.
2.) I was always a little curious about SNDK, but couldn't personally devote the time to the proper DD. In December, or so, Cha2 gave a little rant about our thread's 'dismissing' Ausdauer's comments on SNDK. I disagreed with him on this, invited Ausdauer to update us in December '99, which he graciously did. At that time, the mighty Ausdauer, himself, declared that SNDK was not a gorilla.
For me, I began to pay attention to Flash Memory, as more of the buzz got louder and louder on MP3 and digital cameras. All I had to do was notice an increasing use of digital cameras around me, more ads, more articles. My Silverback holding, Intel, announced spending an additional $2 billion to increase Flash memory fabrication capacity. And I had begun to lurk the SNDK thread more frequently. And finally, I duked it out with Merlin a couple months ago on the topic of how BIG digital cameras were becoming. I learned during that experience that filmless cameras were expected to outsell conventional cameras this year for the first time.
So, getting back to your commentary........SNDK is in favor with me now because:
1. I have a better understanding of Compact Flash memory and the demand for it.
2. I have a better understanding of SNDK's role in Compact Flash memory, its position in the industry, and
3. I have had more of an opportunity, as compared to 12 months ago, to follow SNDK's earnings and growth with sequential quarterly reports.
SNDK, IMHO, is a gorilla candidate in the midst of at least 2 tornadoes (digital cameras, MP3 players). The strength of its patents, and the open use of its proprietary architecture need to be confirmed. When they are, if they are, it will then in my mind be a Gorilla.
The announcement, today, that the most significant player in handheld PDAs (PalmPilot) is moving to SNDK compact flash memory storage in 2001 is another link in the value chain, and a sign of yet another imminent tornado (PDAs).
Apollo |
