I agree almost entirely, Cha2.
Apollo is, I think, correct in implying that what has driven the increased attention to SNDK recently are the demonstrable tornados in flash memory. But from Ausdauer's presentation onwards, that part was entirely predictable; as you say, "the beauty of it was the obvious opportunity for multiple tornados."
What was always in doubt was not whether flash would be huge, but whether SNDK would be a major flash gorilla. One question related, as you say, to "form factor"--that is, whether Compact Flash would ultimately be adopted widely in preference to other forms of flash (Memory Sticks, etc.). The other question related to whether SNDK could be said to have proprietary control over the CF standard.
This last point is still in doubt, as I understand it. (Even Aus agreed with me the other day that it remains to be seen whether SNDK will collect significant royalty revenue from other CF producers.)
The current situation, therefore--taking all of this with a shaker of salt since, like Business Week, I can hardly tell SanDisk from SunDisk--seems to be that we have a flash sector exploding forward in a hypergrowth tornado with more to come, and SNDK playing a major role as both producer and developer of an important flash product. I don't think we have any hard reason to predict at this point whether it will ultimately prove to be a gorilla, king, or prince. The underlying flash tornado, however, should make it a good investment for at least a while no matter which turns out to be the case.
tekboy/Ares@jumpinjackflash.com |
