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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: shamsaee who wrote (26957)6/28/2000 3:53:00 AM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
shamsaee: Agree very much with your analysis re WCDMA and that Qualcomm wins with it even if it turns out to be dominant. But that I where I suggest a bit of caution.

Re your statement:

"since WCDMA looks to be the dominant 3G choice so far."

That is the conventional wisdom, but I am always skeptical of convential wisdom.

WCDMA simply does not yet exist, and it is not repeat not a necessary "upgrade" to the GSM infrastructure base.

There is the very real possibility that (outside of Fortress Europa which is hopeless IMO) that the 1X and HDR paths will lead even GSMland to CDMA 2000 (or MC in the current terminology)

After all, 1X is a "no brainer" per Dr J for CDMA, why is it not at least an attractive possibility for GSMland (again outside the closed and locked Europe) and 1X is the "first phase" of CDMA 2000 (MC).

The political, bureaucratic and inertial pressures for WCDMA are strong certainly. But the technological and economic case is weak. I am old enough and observant enough (and sadly, cynical enough) to expect that the "best" solution is far from a slam dunk, but does it have a shot?

I would like to think it does. And Dr J and his team are going to work to accomplish just that - using 1X and HDR as a major entry points.

Once more, if you look at data and the internet / wireless nexus, no GSM "upgrade" cuts it.

Best.

Cha2
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