This is the post you now say you were referring to although none of your earlier post answers this one...I don't see how you have made the connection of Oil prices with success or lack of Comp move, please read it back I say that oil prices are a worry but would cave in once the refiners would realise that it would suit them to wait instead of bidding the prices higher.... the speculating side of the equation was reported by BW in an interview from Naimi the present Saudi Oil Czar..
<<Friday, Jun 23, 2000 10:42 AM ET
Reply # of 32089
I mean I see no reason for Comp not to close above 4000, it is point of inflexion here and this is typical at these levels to have new walls of worries. The 25 days MA timer on IIX is flashing solid signal but the market is not re-acting, at all important resistance it has never been a straight line up. On point of inflexion traders try to get the weaker hands sell positions it may also be compounded by some tax selling pressures too, but I think that underlying strength in the market will take us forward although I should be unhesitent in admitting that oil prices in mid west and FOMC looming meeting has its own repurcussions plus AMZN sell off have added some kind of uncertainity in minds of investors. The oil equation is little distorted as a result of low inventories and I think and agree with the analysis that the present rise has more to do with the speculators who think refiners will soon be in the market to bid the oil higher in my opinion refiners will wait with 700,000 plus barrels and 150,000 to 250,000 from Mexico the demand supply equation will soon balance, whatever Saudis say as a swing producers with additional capacity they will like oil to stay below 30$ so as to avoid long term fringe producers problems that may bring the oil prices crashing down if oil stays above 30$.
On Sept contract I would like 1472 to be respected on closing basis. However I would ideally like a close above 4000 on Comp and IIX above 492..>>
<<I do find it hard to believe that you would post 2 negative articles on oil just because you thought it was nice reading.>>
I respect your judgement, as a child I was taught to trust people if they say something,if you find hard to believe that behind a very academic purpose lies some 'painful position'it is your chioce and my absolute failure for simple reason that my words and submissions are not worthy of your believe. Human relationships here are all about trust and believing on what one writes and says, the people you find hard to believe should be dismissed to dustbin of history. Lets move on and let the time decide what happened to oil. |
