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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 163.00-0.4%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: wily who wrote (12349)6/28/2000 8:46:00 PM
From: wily  Read Replies (2) of 60323
 
(revised) Projected bottom line growth for Sandisk

thru 2002 assuming:

1) 100% growth in product and license&royalty revenues for 2000.

2) 50% growth in product revenues in 2001 and 2002 from their already established capacity, i.e., not including the Manassas plant. (I don't know if this is valid).

3) 50% growth in license&royalty revenues in 2001 and 2002.

4) Revenues of 250MM in 2001 and 500M in 2002 from Manassas (not sure where I got these numbers -- maybe the 10K?)

5) "profit from products" = 25% of product revenues (after "cost of revenues").

6) Operating Income(E) is based on the percentage that dropped to the bottom line in 1999 (26.5/94.8 = 28%). This could vary a lot depending on operating expenses, interest income, and taxes.

7) Outstanding shares increase 10% each year as they have the last few years. I haven't looked to see the reasons for the increase, so this may not be valid.



			1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002

FlashVision Revenues					250E	 500E
Product Revenues	105.7	103.2	205.8	400E	600E	 900E
Total Product Revenues	105.7	103.2	205.8	400E	850E    1400E

Profit from Products	 33.4	 22.9	 53.6	100E	212E	 350E		
Royaly & License Revs	 19.6	 32.6	 41.2	 80E	120E	 180E

Total Profits		 53.0	 55.5	 94.8	180E	332E	 530E

Operating Income	19.8	 11.8	 26.5	 50.3E	 92.8E	 148E

Shares Outstanding	49.9MM	55.3MM	 61.4MM	 67MM(E) 73MM(E) 80MM(E)
(diluted)		 	

earnings/share		 .40	 .21	  .43	  .75E	  1.27E	  1.85E



Comments/adjustments?

wily
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