Gus,
You hinge your argument on the assumption that all GSM carriers will upgrade through a WCDMA path.
Why is this so clear cut?
1) WCDMA appears nowhere close to be ready, for all intents and purposes, it's still in the lab.
2) WCDMA may NEVER get off the ground.
3) WCDMA, if it ever works, may not be able to move bits even at the snail pace of 300 something K. I've heard some engineers are speculating they're only able to get data rates around 100K in those beautiful van phones.
4) WCDMA, on the royalty side, is probably gonna be very EXPENSIVE, with every Tom, Dick, and Harry clamoring to grab their pound of flesh. Qualcomm has said many times, they're not gonna budge from their 5%.
So let's say, in 2002, carriers are ITCHING to begin recouping those 3G spectrum costs. They gotta get this stuff going, NOW!
What's gonna happen to those Euro carriers if:
1) WCDMA is STILL not ready. After promising delivery in May 2001, and a year later it's still not available, how's that gonna look? Would you wanna do biz with a contingent whose intentions are good, but just CAN'T deliver?
2) WCDMA royalty costs are 15, 20, 25% OR MORE. So the product is significantly more costly than the other 3G option.
My prediction....you're gonna see one or two carriers roll the dice on a shiny new CDMA 2000 network, that WORKS, that is PROVEN, that has data blazing along at EXCEPTIONAL speed, whose royalty cost is only a FRACTION of WCDMA's, and is READY NOW. It only takes one or two major carriers to make that committment, and you'll watch the entire Euro continent follow.
Of course, if I'm wrong about WCDMA, if it's not true that the phones barely fit into a cargo van, if it's not true that they run HOT, if it's not true that the data rates SUCK, if it's not true that the IPR claims are a big mess and will likely need to be litigated...if none of that is true, I think WCDMA has a good shot of being an upgrade path for GSM operators.
Still fine by me.
If WCDMA DOESN'T happen, however, that sure will be a bunch of wealth lost down a rat hole, wouldn't you say?
NOK CEO's mea culpa was very telling...
The smart money is beginning to take notice.
Verve |
