>>>You can't forecast human behavior...at least not with any degree of accuracy.<<<
Don't be so sure. Are markets chaotic or are they fractal? The basis of Elliot Wave Analysis is based on Fibonacci Sequence which occurs everywhere in nature (pods on pine cones to star nebulae)and which in turn can describe market prices which, in its turn, is nothing more than a reflection of crowd psychology and herd instinct. Ever see schools of fish turn the same way on a dime? Ripples in the current. Collective human behavior, while not as instantaneous, is similar. The herd acts ad hoc; therefore Elliot Wave analysis, based on Fibonacci sequence, has merit. It works. So do Momentum oscillators. While not an exact science, and reading the chart, more an art than a science despite the math, trading without them is similar to trying to win a battle without maps. I am not short (currently) PWER, but just for fun I bet the stock retraces into the 80's before any meaningful further advance beyond recent highs. Regards, Islander. |
