MTIC - Is this the next EMC? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : MTIC - Is this the next EMC?

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To: The Ox who wrote (3704)	6/29/2000 9:07:00 AM
From: jim nazium	Read Replies (2) of 3748

I actually think that this stock should be avoided. Frankly their new Fibre Channel 6700 is not selling well nor performing well. They are including their 3200 and 3600 as Vivant and it is a good product but it is almost past its prime. Their upgrade to the 6700 is not going very well either and since the 6700 installed base and sales are weak it does not matter. I do not see the future product road map. My guess is that they will have sales problems for several more quarters and start losing money and going into debt again. They will be ok because they will be getting one more big EMC payment in February 2001. People do not realize that this helps earnings and cash flow by nearly 10 cents per year. I think they CALD will continue to underperform and they will not be allowed to liquidate that stake ever due to Noorda. Lack of clear product direction will prevent a buy out any where near this price. The service organization is probably the most valuable piece but it will probably start to detoriate. Europe will continue to be an issue and sales productivity and turnover will also hurt. There biggest asset is their long time productive sales reps and the corresponding installed base. However, they have been unable to get these guys to go to the 6700 product line. Also their wins into the internet space has been impressive but appears to be enormous credit risk and this gravy train is beginning to end. Due to selling less tape and EMC/DG keeping the pricing stable their RAID margins should be good and that has been the biggest improvement. The new pres will probably be given a year or so to work out. He has a tough task ahead of him and he does not appear to me to have the stuff. I would be a buyer around $2-2.50 and think as they miss the next two quarters and sales decrease quarter over quarter and year over year that over the next 6 months I may be able to buy the stock at this price.

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