Andreas - while you, El, Jack and others were assuming that somehow CPQ had stuffed the channel, against all evidence to the contrary, I was placing bets. I was sitting on some cash, as I had sold my Jan '01 SUNW calls last week for a 30% gain. When the SSB call came out, I immediately saw it as complete BS as I had been watching for the opposite problem - CPQ and DELL's inability to get parts, and the possible impact on the Q of a supply-constrained environment. I put in an order for CPQGY at 3/8 or lower, and just for good measure, some CPQGF if it bottomed. Got a bunch of CPQGY at 1/4 and some at 3/16, 800 contracts in all. The CPQGF was a turkey shoot, 800 contracts at 1/8. So about $20K at risk.
If I lose, no big deal - I made 10 times that on the SUNW calls. But given the leverage, especially on the 27.5s, my sense is that it will be Christmas in July. I can see a 10X pop in a week if this SSB report is as bogus as I think it is. |
