Wily, if my recollection is correct, there was a post on this thread a couple of months ago regarding the new plants in Taiwan. It seems there are about six new plants, and SanDisk is entitled to a share of their production. This greatly increases the total output that SanDisk was able to get from the UMC plant. Last fall, we were all worried about the earthquake and whether SanDisk could fill all its orders from the plant that turned out to be untouched by the quake. Now there is additional capacity, relieving the shortage of chips somewhat.
My first point dealt with the percentage of wafers that are blemish free. This percentage goes up as a result of experience and better controls. It is, as you note, somewhat related to my fourth point, but there I was emphasizing the broader manufacturing problems like inventory, supply, managerial issues, etc. These broader issues get resolved as the plant managers and work force learn more about the best way to operate the plant. The first point dealt mainly with production technology to get a clean, blemish free wafer.
My main point is simply that a lot of stuff is going right with SanDisk, and we can be a little more optimistic about earnings growth. Maybe a lot more optimistic.
Art |