WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 171.98

+5.5%

9:43 AM EST

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To: Si_Detective who wrote (12398)	6/29/2000 8:33:00 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) of 60323

I'm also concerned about reports of a coming glut in flash memory production capacity, as Zeev notes. I've never seen any data to back up the view that we're getting into overcapacity. I'd like to see where these analysts are picking up that information, or whether they're simply guessing. Back in 1998, SanDisk had some inventory problems that led to writing off some of their older units. The technology was improving rapidly. Older, lower capacity units were being replaced by higher capacity. The Compact Flash format was only one of several that were being tried out. I can see a possible parallel now, with higher capacity units driving out the older 8 mb units. Maybe that's what could have been responsible for spot selling, if such selling occurred. The only certainty here is that a lot of analysts are coming up with opinions that have little or no factual basis, or if there is a factual basis, the data is unreliable.

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