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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 94.04+0.6%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: long-gone who wrote (55538)6/30/2000 1:07:04 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 116764
 
Richard, although a spike in the POG is possible sometime this summer, like last fall, I don't see it holding. :(

The action in the XAU looks very similar to the behavior of the Dow and S@P prior to the start of the Bull Market in equities in the summer of 1982. The fundamentals were turning bullish for equities for quite a while before that summer, but the Dow and S@P kept on going down anyway in spite of improving fundamentals. I know because I started investing in the early spring of 1982 and I didn't understand why my long positions were tanking. I was quite bewildered back then too, but I made a decision to hold because the fundamentals looked promising for equities. It wasn't easy back then for us because we were living from paycheck to paycheck at the time. We ended up buying our first house in 1985 on the profits of those investments.

The good news here is that the Bear is almost over for Gold. I'm convinced that what I'm seeing in regard to the XAU is very late stage Bear Market Activity. The Bad News is that this can last another 9-15 months before a Gold Bull begins. There is a remote possibility that we may see one last great act of selling before the Gold Bull begins, but I wouldn't count on that.

It pays to just be patient. The longer the Pain, the Greater the Gain.
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